Discussion:
'The Lancet' article
Add Reply
Fran
2020-03-16 22:17:43 UTC
Reply
Permalink
an article in the Lancet about Covid-19:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext
Dechucka
2020-03-16 22:25:35 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Fran
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext
Interesting.
To hark back to the A 'coronavirus winter' thread this is the reason
you can't get a 'death rate' from looking only a positively diagnoses
cases. The 80% below are infected but may or may not be tested. The
article suggests a death rate of 0·3–1%


"The third uncertainty is whether there are a large number of
asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. Estimates suggest that about 80% of
people with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic disease, 14% have severe
disease, and 6% are critically ill,9
implying that symptom-based control is unlikely to be sufficient unless
these cases are only lightly infectious."
Fran
2020-03-17 22:39:01 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Dechucka
Post by Fran
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext
Interesting.
To hark back to the  A 'coronavirus winter' thread this is the reason
you can't get a 'death rate' from looking only a positively diagnoses
cases. The 80% below are infected but may or may not be tested. The
article suggests a death rate of 0·3–1%
Sigh! They say their 'best estimate' is that. That is far higher than a
flu season.
Post by Dechucka
"The third uncertainty is whether there are a large number of
asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. Estimates suggest that about 80% of
people with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic disease, 14% have severe
disease, and 6% are critically ill,9
implying that symptom-based control is unlikely to be sufficient unless
these cases are only lightly infectious."
"First among the important unknowns about COVID-19 is the case fatality
rate (CFR), which requires information on the denominator that defines
the number infected."
Dechucka
2020-03-17 23:03:50 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by Dechucka
Post by Fran
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext
Interesting.
To hark back to the  A 'coronavirus winter' thread this is the reason
you can't get a 'death rate' from looking only a positively diagnoses
cases. The 80% below are infected but may or may not be tested. The
article suggests a death rate of 0·3–1%
Sigh! They say their 'best estimate' is that.  That is far higher than a
flu season.
Agreed it looks like the death rate is higher than 'normal' seasonal
flu. If it gets going in Aus the absolute number of deaths will be much
higher as 1) the death RATE is higher 2) there is no immunity, vaccine
or treatment ( although Chloroquine, lopinavir/ritonavir combo,
favipiravir or remdesivir are looking promising)
 > "The third uncertainty is whether there are a large number of
Post by Dechucka
asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. Estimates suggest that about 80% of
people with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic disease, 14% have
severe disease, and 6% are critically ill,9
implying that symptom-based control is unlikely to be sufficient
unless these cases are only lightly infectious."
"First among the important unknowns about COVID-19 is the case fatality
rate (CFR), which requires information on the denominator that defines
the number infected."
You don't get it by dividing the no. of deaths by the number of KNOWN cases
Petzl
2020-03-16 22:47:07 UTC
Reply
Permalink
<https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext>
or https://is.gd/plqxCd
--
Petzl
The philosophy of the school room in one generation
will be the philosophy of government in the next
- Abraham Lincoln
Loading...