A Tutorial on the Basic Physics of Climate Change

[HoodwinkedByAGW]

The Truth About Greenhouse Gases From A Non-Activist, Non-Warmist, And
Therefore Honest, Climate Scientist



Professor William Happer is the Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics at
Princeton University.

He is a member of the GWPF’s Academic Advisory Council.



22 Aug 2011





I want to discuss a contemporary moral epidemic: the notion that increasing
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide, will
have disastrous consequences for mankind and for the planet.



Let me summarize how the key issues appear to me, a working scientist with a
better background than most in the physics of climate.



CO2 really is a greenhouse gas and, other things being equal, adding CO2 to
the atmosphere by burning coal, oil, and natural gas will modestly increase
the surface temperature of the earth.



Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our current
390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.



At the current rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere —about 2 ppm per year—
it would take about 195 years to achieve this doubling.



The combination of a slightly warmer earth and more CO2 will greatly
increase the production of food, wood, fiber, and other products by green
plants, so the increased CO2 will be good for the planet, and will easily
outweigh any negative effects.



Supposed calamities like the accelerated rise of sea level, ocean
acidification, more extreme climate, tropical diseases near the poles, etc.
are greatly exaggerated....



This contemporary “climate crusade” has much in common with the mediæval
crusades Mackay describes, with true believers, opportunists, cynics,
money-hungry governments, manipulators of various types, and even children’s
crusades…



It’s the notion that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases, notably carbon dioxide, will have disastrous consequences for mankind
and for the planet.



A major problem has been the co-option of climate science by politics,
ambition, greed, and what seems to be a hereditary human need for a
righteous cause.

What better cause than “saving” the planet, especially if one can get ample,
secure funding at the same time?



Huge amounts of money are available from governments and wealthy foundations
for climate institutes and for climate-related research.



Funding for climate studies is second only to funding for biological
sciences.



Large academic empires, prizes, elections to honorary societies,
fellowships, consulting fees and other perquisites go to those researchers
whose results may help “save the planet.”



Every day we read about some real or contrived environmental or ecological
effect “proved” to arise from global warming.



The total of such claimed effects now runs in the hundreds,ll the alleged
result of an unexceptional century-long warming of less than 1ºC.



Government subsidies, loan guarantees, and captive customers go to green
companies.



Carbon-tax revenues flow to governments.



As the great Russian poet Pushkin said in his novella Dubrovsky, “If there
happens to be a trough, there will be pigs.” Any doubt about apocalyptic
climate scenarios could remove many troughs.



I am a strong supporter of a clean environment. We need to be vigilant to
keep our land, air and waters free of real pollution, particulates, heavy
metals, pathogens, but carbon dioxide (CO2) is not one of these pollutants.



Carbon is the stuff of life.

Our bodies are made of carbon.

Every day a normal human exhales around 1 kg of CO2 -- the simplest
chemically stable molecule of carbon in the earth’s atmosphere.



Before the industrial period, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was
about 270 parts per million (ppm). At the present time, the concentration is
about 390 ppm, 0.039% of all atmospheric molecules and less than 1% of that
in our breath.



About fifty million years ago, a brief moment in the long history of life on
earth, geological evidence indicates, CO2 levels were several thousand ppm,
much higher than now.



And life flourished abundantly.



The preindustrial value of 270 ppm CO2 may well have been below the optimum
level, we are probably better off with our current 390 ppm, and we would be
better off with still more CO2.



For example, there is evidence that California orange groves are about 30
percent more productive today than they were 150 years ago because of the
increase of atmospheric CO2.





A relevant quote:

“The object of the Author in the following pages has been to collect the
most remarkable instances of those moral epidemics which have been excited,
sometimes by one cause and sometimes by another, and to show how easily the
masses have been led astray, and how imitative and gregarious men are, even
in their infatuations and crimes,” Charles Mackay in the preface to the
first edition of his Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of
Crowds.





http://www.thegwpf.org/images/stories/gwpf-reports/happer-the_truth_about_greenhouse_gases.pdf





Warmest Regards



B O N Z O



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"A major problem has been the co-option of climate science by politics,
ambition, greed, and what seems to be a hereditary human need for a
righteous cause."

"What better cause than "saving" the planet, especially if one can get
ample, secure funding at the same time?"

William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton
University.



"The claim is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8ºK in
about 150 years, which, if true, means to me that the temperature has been
amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely
improved in this 'warming' period,".

Nobel Laureate Dr. Ivar Giaever:



"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"

Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"All it takes to find oneself called a 'denier' is to seek a sense of
proportion about environmental problems"

Mark Lynas, The God Species

[HoodwinkedByAGW]

On Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:12:25 -0600, Sam Wormley wrote ...

Pure denial. There is *so much* peer reviewed literature that sayd
that CO2 *will* warm the earth and that it has been responsible for
the current warming.
If you don't believe it; show us what else has caused it spinner.

Typical warmist unscientific political propaganda. You haven't shown
that what you claim causes it is true, but if we won't blindly accept
what you say, then we have prove what the true answer is. In other words
to win the argument WE have to solve the problem nobody (especially
warmists) has solved so far. Slick.

Hey "Dawlish", the liar, you've STILL never answered the fact that NASA
only places CO2 at 14-20% with the manmade CO2 only a tiny fraction of
that. The question dear boy, is not DOES CO2 provide ANY warming, but
rather HOW MUCH does it contribute. Answer: Damn little. SO why are all
you warmists so hot for an energy tax? Oh that's right a mere trillion
dollars PER YEAR up for grabs. The BBC is correct. We deniers DO say
this is all a HOAX and FRAUD.

[HoodwinkedByAGW]

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
The combination of a slightly warmer earth and more CO2 will greatly
increase the production of food, wood, fiber, and other products by green
plants, so the increased CO2 will be good for the planet, and will easily
outweigh any negative effects.

You professor friend ignores melting ice, sea level rise and declining
ocean pH. Fresh water will be a problem for big chunks of population
dependent on glacial melt waters.

If the temperature only rises less than 1ºC, then none of the above will
happen!



Warmest Regards

B O N Z O

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"A major problem has been the co-option of climate science by politics,
ambition, greed, and what seems to be a hereditary human need for a
righteous cause."
"What better cause than "saving" the planet, especially if one can get
ample, secure funding at the same time?"
William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton
University.

"The claim is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8ºK in
about 150 years, which, if true, means to me that the temperature has been
amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely
improved in this 'warming' period,".
Nobel Laureate Dr. Ivar Giaever:

"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"All it takes to find oneself called a 'denier' is to seek a sense of
proportion about environmental problems"
Mark Lynas, The God Species

[Surfer]

On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our current
390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

Eg the following graph shows that since 1979 the amount of Arctic sea
ice measured in September each year has been declining at an average
rate of 12% per decade.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_09_plot.png

Sea ice reflects sunlight and heat, so less ice means more heat will
be absorbed by the Arctic ocean, which will have an additional warming
effect.

In fact since 2000, the rate of sea ice loss has accelerated.

[Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax]

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our current
390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

You have forgotten cooling due to negative feedbacks. So have the models
- that's why they've always been wrong.

[troppo]

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our
current 390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

You have forgotten cooling due to negative feedbacks. So have the
models - that's why they've always been wrong.

Yep - they had to torture the data to make the models reflect their massive
cause/effect error with CO2. Positive feedback was the only way to do it.

A bit like the Sim City game. There is a bug - it is (or was) possible to
specify a negative value for depreciation, so everything just went up in
value :-)

Positive feedback is very much exclusive to warmist theory, uncommon
everywhere else. Very much falling apart now: Miskolczi theory of saturated
greenhouse effect gaining ground, recent studies of the Argo data showing
that oceanic sea temperature has a maximum.

The only situation where I have found positive feedback is in urban heat
islands ...

[Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax]

Post by troppo

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our
current 390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

You have forgotten cooling due to negative feedbacks. So have the
models - that's why they've always been wrong.

Yep - they had to torture the data to make the models reflect their massive
cause/effect error with CO2. Positive feedback was the only way to do it.
A bit like the Sim City game. There is a bug - it is (or was) possible to
specify a negative value for depreciation, so everything just went up in
value :-)
Positive feedback is very much exclusive to warmist theory, uncommon
everywhere else.

IIRC, climate is (purportedly in accordance with IPCC "assumptions") the
only natural system not dominated by negative feedbacks. Everything else
maintains some sort of self-regulating stability or it wouldn't be here.

Post by troppo
Very much falling apart now: Miskolczi theory of saturated
greenhouse effect gaining ground, recent studies of the Argo data showing
that oceanic sea temperature has a maximum.

I'll bet the warmists wish they could shoot down them pesky satellites!
:-) Rather harder to get rid of than the MWP was though.

Post by troppo
The only situation where I have found positive feedback is in urban heat
islands ...

And , surprise, surprise, that's where the only "important" surface
weather stations are nowadays:
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/nvst.html

Correlation? Beautiful
Causation? Obvious

[SwindledByFakeAGW]

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our
current 390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

You have forgotten cooling due to negative feedbacks. So have the
models - that's why they've always been wrong.

Yep - they had to torture the data to make the models reflect their massive
cause/effect error with CO2. Positive feedback was the only way to do it.

A bit like the Sim City game. There is a bug - it is (or was) possible to
specify a negative value for depreciation, so everything just went up in
value :-)

Positive feedback is very much exclusive to warmist theory, uncommon
everywhere else. Very much falling apart now: Miskolczi theory of saturated
greenhouse effect gaining ground, recent studies of the Argo data showing
that oceanic sea temperature has a maximum.

The only situation where I have found positive feedback is in urban heat
islands ...

[Surfer]

On Sun, 19 Feb 2012 15:32:16 +1100, Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our current
390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

You have forgotten cooling due to negative feedbacks.

Two important ones are increased convection and increased evaporation
of water.

That will cause faster drying of soil during droughts.

On the other hand, when warm moisture laden air rises to an altitude
where it is cold enough for the moisture to condense, the presence of
extra moisture will make it possible for heavier rainfall to occur.

So while these negative feedbacks will cause cooling, they will also
cause worse droughts and floods.

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax
So have the models
- that's why they've always been wrong.

I am not keeping up with the models, but it says here:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

<Start extract>

Climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. We can’t
wait for 30 years to see if a model is any good or not; models are
tested against the past, against what we know happened. If a model can
correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past,
we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might
happen in the future.

So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The
models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past
climate changes. If they get the past right, there is no reason to
think their predictions would be wrong. Testing models against the
existing instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause global warming,
because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless
the extra CO2 was added to the model. All other known forcings are
adequate in explaining temperature variations prior to the rise in
temperature over the last thirty years, while none of them are capable
of explaining the rise in the past thirty years. CO2 does explain
that rise, and explains it completely without any need for additional,
as yet unknown forcings.

Where models have been running for sufficient time, they have also
been proved to make accurate predictions. For example, the eruption of
Mt. Pinatubo allowed modellers to test the accuracy of models by
feeding in the data about the eruption. The models successfully
predicted the climatic response after the eruption. Models also
correctly predicted other effects subsequently confirmed by
observation, including greater warming in the Arctic and over land,
greater warming at night, and stratospheric cooling.

The climate models, far from being melodramatic, may be conservative
in the predictions they produce. For example, here’s a graph of sea
level rise:

<Continued here>
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

[troppo]

Post by Surfer
On Sun, 19 Feb 2012 15:32:16 +1100, Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our
current 390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

You have forgotten cooling due to negative feedbacks.

Two important ones are increased convection and increased evaporation
of water.
That will cause faster drying of soil during droughts.

Causing increased albido

Post by Surfer
On the other hand, when warm moisture laden air rises to an altitude
where it is cold enough for the moisture to condense, the presence of
extra moisture will make it possible for heavier rainfall to occur.

No evidence around here that it is any heavier. And yes I do know what
heavy rainfall is, eg 800mm in 10 hours.

Post by Surfer
So while these negative feedbacks will cause cooling, they will also
cause worse droughts and floods.

No evidence of anything changing in that regard either.

Post by Surfer

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax
So have the models
- that's why they've always been wrong.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

Oh no - John Cook again. He's right about everything, everyone else is
wrong.

Post by Surfer
<Start extract>
Climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. We can’t
wait for 30 years to see if a model is any good or not;

He obviously hasn't done any modelling ...

Post by Surfer
models are
tested against the past, against what we know happened. If a model can
correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past,

That's how you construct most forms of model in the first place. It didn't
happen with climate models. They saw a period of slightly rising
temperature, jumped at the rising CO2 levels, and made an assumption that
it was cause and effect. Didn't bother to look any further.

Post by Surfer
we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might
happen in the future.

No we wouldn't expect it. It might indicate that the algorithms correctly
reflect reality, but does nothing else, and certainly does not prove any
cause and effect.

I constructed a model back in 2009, designed to estimate future demand for
water and sewerage infrastructure based on a cyclical but broadly linear
development trend. No cause/effect problem of course. It ran 2 years ahead
of actual demand for several years. Not a problem - this type of work has a
2-3 year design/build lag. It is now running pretty much spot-on. Does it
therefore predict the future? No, of course not. At best, it provides some
warning of when and where capacity is reached.

Post by Surfer
So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The
models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past
climate changes. If they get the past right, there is no reason to
think their predictions would be wrong. Testing models against the
existing instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause global warming,
because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless
the extra CO2 was added to the model.

Bunk. It was the positive feedback that was added. The only way they could
get the results they wanted.

Post by Surfer
All other known forcings are
adequate in explaining temperature variations prior to the rise in
temperature over the last thirty years, while none of them are capable
of explaining the rise in the past thirty years. CO2 does explain
that rise, and explains it completely without any need for additional,
as yet unknown forcings.

Great steaming crap. Some forcings or feedbacks were unknown, true, but
the AGW nutters geneally refused to consider even obvious alternative
explanations, and have as a RULE (stated below) discounted subsequent
discoveries.

The General Climate Models all had to comply with the IPCC scenario of
"1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, or 1.5°C to 4.5°C for a doubling of atmospheric
CO2 concentration (otherwise known as the "equilibrium climate
sensitivity"). (IPCC 16 May 2011). A priori reasoning.

Post by Surfer
Where models have been running for sufficient time, they have also
been proved to make accurate predictions. For example, the eruption of
Mt. Pinatubo allowed modellers to test the accuracy of models by
feeding in the data about the eruption. The models successfully
predicted the climatic response after the eruption.

No they don't. The volcano aspect had to be factored in after the event.

Post by Surfer
Models also
correctly predicted other effects subsequently confirmed by
observation, including greater warming in the Arctic and over land,
greater warming at night, and stratospheric cooling.

Again, all of this is tweaking after the event. "Stratospheric cooling?"
Oh I get it - they had to take out the tropical stratosphere hot-spot
because it didn't exist ...

Post by Surfer
The climate models, far from being melodramatic, may be conservative
in the predictions they produce. For example, here’s a graph of sea
<Continued here>
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

Except the actual observations don't look like that.

Notice the tide gauge data is left out after about 2002?

Some of us follow tide gauge data as part of our daily work, but these
people are so far up themselves they think there is no one out there who
would notice this.

[Surfer]

Post by Surfer
On Sun, 19 Feb 2012 15:32:16 +1100, Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our
current 390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

You have forgotten cooling due to negative feedbacks.

Two important ones are increased convection and increased evaporation
of water.
That will cause faster drying of soil during droughts.

Causing increased albido.

Why? If the air can hold more moisture due to being warmer, why would
there be any extra tendency to form clouds?

[troppo]

Post by Surfer

Post by Surfer
On Sun, 19 Feb 2012 15:32:16 +1100, Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our
current 390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

You have forgotten cooling due to negative feedbacks.

Two important ones are increased convection and increased evaporation
of water.
That will cause faster drying of soil during droughts.

Causing increased albido.

Why? If the air can hold more moisture due to being warmer, why would
there be any extra tendency to form clouds?

If the air is warmer it can hold more moisture, but it doesn't stay that
way does it? With diurnal cooling you get precipitation. Dew point at the
surface, and cloud formation. Low level cloud does have an insulating
property but high-level cloud has an albedo effect, reflecting the sun
back into space, which is why cloudy days are cooler.

The models have assumed but not proven a strongly positive, ie
amplifying, feedback, but have ignored the possibility of negative
feedbacks.

[Surfer]

Post by troppo

Post by Surfer
Why? If the air can hold more moisture due to being warmer, why would
there be any extra tendency to form clouds?

If the air is warmer it can hold more moisture, but it doesn't stay that
way does it? With diurnal cooling you get precipitation. Dew point at the
surface, and cloud formation.

Yes. But in many places the weather tends to be more cloudy in winter
than in summer. So even with diurnal cooling, I don't think its
necessarily the case that increased evaporation due to warmer
temperatures will cause more clouds.

Using Google I found:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch1s1-5-2.html

"...the amplitude and even the sign of cloud feedbacks was noted in
the TAR [ Third Assessment Report] as highly uncertain..."

So the experts don't yet know the answer either.

Post by troppo
Low level cloud does have an insulating
property but high-level cloud has an albedo effect, reflecting the sun
back into space, which is why cloudy days are cooler.
The models have assumed but not proven a strongly positive, ie
amplifying, feedback, but have ignored the possibility of negative
feedbacks.

Well, water vapor is a greenhouse gas, so if warming puts more into
the atmosphere that will be a positive feedback.

On the other hand, unless a negative cloud feedback can be reliably
shown to exist, it would be safer not to assume it.

[troppo]

Post by Surfer

Post by troppo

Post by Surfer
Why? If the air can hold more moisture due to being warmer, why
would there be any extra tendency to form clouds?

If the air is warmer it can hold more moisture, but it doesn't stay
that way does it? With diurnal cooling you get precipitation. Dew
point at the surface, and cloud formation.

Yes. But in many places the weather tends to be more cloudy in winter
than in summer. So even with diurnal cooling, I don't think its
necessarily the case that increased evaporation due to warmer
temperatures will cause more clouds.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch1s1-5-2.html
"...the amplitude and even the sign of cloud feedbacks was noted in
the TAR [ Third Assessment Report] as highly uncertain..."
So the experts don't yet know the answer either.

Experts? Masters of bs perhaps. IPCC still push the positive feedback
creed, but you are right - it is still uncertain, so if they are proved
wrong, they can trot that little gem out, and move on to stuffing up some
other asect of life. IPCC freely admits, this has nothing to do with
climate any more.

Post by Surfer

Post by troppo
Low level cloud does have an insulating
property but high-level cloud has an albedo effect, reflecting the sun
back into space, which is why cloudy days are cooler.
The models have assumed but not proven a strongly positive, ie
amplifying, feedback, but have ignored the possibility of negative
feedbacks.

Well, water vapor is a greenhouse gas, so if warming puts more into
the atmosphere that will be a positive feedback.

We don't know that.

Post by Surfer
On the other hand, unless a negative cloud feedback can be reliably
shown to exist, it would be safer not to assume it.

Safer NOT to assume it meaning, let's go bankrupt the world?

Science isn't supposed to work that way, but the 'null' hypothesis has
been abandoned in this field.

The fact that climate has been relatively stable for a long period of
time indicates that negative feedback predominates. We wouldn't be here
if it didn't. As it is, this relatively stable climate can and will
continue to produce catastrophic events from time to time.

As I have said before, part of my work involves determining minimum
habitable floor levels and design wind speeds. It is becoming a lot more
difficult to persuade clients to design for events that I KNOW will
happen sooner or later, because of all the claptrap being spilled out.

We don't yet understand all of the negative feedback phenomena. There has
been progress recently. Very little of it is coming from the cashed-up
side of the operation, because that side isn't looking for negative
feedbacks.

[Surfer]

Post by troppo

...unless a negative cloud feedback can be reliably
shown to exist, it would be safer not to assume it.

Safer NOT to assume it meaning, let's go bankrupt the world?

No. It means switching from fossil fuels to alternative sources of
energy.

Denmark has done far more than Greece in that regard and unlike
Greece, Denmark is not going bankrupt.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/da.html

".....Danes enjoy among the highest standards of living in the world
and the Danish economy is characterized by extensive government
welfare measures and an equitable distribution of income. Denmark is a
net exporter of food and energy and enjoys a comfortable balance of
payments surplus..."

[troppo]

Post by Surfer

Post by troppo

...unless a negative cloud feedback can be reliably
shown to exist, it would be safer not to assume it.

Safer NOT to assume it meaning, let's go bankrupt the world?

No. It means switching from fossil fuels to alternative sources of
energy.

There are no alternatives. Solar doesn't work after dark and we have no
viable means to store the energy at present. Wind is worse than useless -
huge waste of space, massive environmental impacts in manufacture and
operation, excessive production when the wind blows (unless the turbines
burn out of course), nothing when it doesn't blow. I have built both
solar and wind. They work at micro-level, individual buildings too far
from the grid. Don't work at macro level.

Recent study by SLR Consulting for AIMS at Cape Ferguson. Wind power not
viable. If it won't work there it won't work anywhere.

Post by Surfer
Denmark has done far more than Greece in that regard and unlike
Greece, Denmark is not going bankrupt.

Danes are becoming increasingly concerned about the quantity of dead wind
turbines piling up. Can't be recycled, hazardous materials and
components.

Post by Surfer
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/geos/da.html

Post by Surfer
".....Danes enjoy among the highest standards of living in the world
and the Danish economy is characterized by extensive government
welfare measures and an equitable distribution of income. Denmark is a
net exporter of food and energy and enjoys a comfortable balance of
payments surplus..."

[Peter Webb]

Post by Surfer
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm
<Start extract>
Climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. We can't
wait for 30 years to see if a model is any good or not; models are
tested against the past, against what we know happened. If a model can
correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past,
we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might
happen in the future.

No, you can't do that at all.

I can write a program which accurately "predicts" past temperatures
perfectly, and then has the earth entering an ice age in 2013 with a
temperature drop of 40 degrees C.

Post by Surfer
So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The
models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past
climate changes. If they get the past right,

Which of course they do. The models which show cooling from 1850 (or
whenever) to now are immediately eliminated, which leaves only the models
which show gradually increasing temperatures up until now. The models are
*selected* on the basis to accurately reproduce the past.

Post by Surfer
there is no reason to
think their predictions would be wrong.

And similarly, no reason to think them correct. That they agree with the
(known) temperature record until 2011 is no indication whatsoever that they
will correctly predict future temperatures better than extrapolation, which
is fact exactly what they are doing - simply extrapolating the known data.

Post by Surfer
Testing models against the
existing instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause global warming,
because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless
the extra CO2 was added to the model.

But that assumes that it is caused by CO2, because that's how your models
work. You might be able to predict that the earth would be cooler without
the additional CO2, but you can't test it; this crap about its needed to
make the models work first assumes the models are correct, its a circular
argument.

Post by Surfer
All other known forcings

ROFL.

I think its the unknown ones which are causing the problem.

Post by Surfer
are
adequate in explaining temperature variations prior to the rise in
temperature over the last thirty years, while none of them are capable
of explaining the rise in the past thirty years. CO2 does explain
that rise, and explains it completely without any need for additional,
as yet unknown forcings.

Just because its the best theory you have got is no evidence it is correct.

Post by Surfer
Where models have been running for sufficient time, they have also
been proved to make accurate predictions.

ROFL.

Post by Surfer
For example, the eruption of
Mt. Pinatubo allowed modellers to test the accuracy of models by
feeding in the data about the eruption. The models successfully
predicted the climatic response after the eruption. Models also
correctly predicted other effects subsequently confirmed by
observation, including greater warming in the Arctic and over land,
greater warming at night, and stratospheric cooling.

And about a billion they have gotten wrong.

And none of these are specific to CO2, which is what the article is
supposedly about. Not one of them provides the slightest shred of evidence
that CO2 is involved. There is exactly zero evidence linking additional
(anthropogenic) CO2 to warming; none; zilch.

Post by Surfer
The climate models, far from being melodramatic, may be conservative
in the predictions they produce. For example, here's a graph of sea
<Continued here>
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

Which has dropped of almost to zero over the last 3 years.

What crap.

[Surfer]

On Sun, 19 Feb 2012 23:06:48 +1100, "Peter Webb"

Post by Peter Webb

Post by Surfer
The climate models, far from being melodramatic, may be conservative
in the predictions they produce. For example, here's a graph of sea
<Continued here>
http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

Which has dropped of almost to zero over the last 3 years.

Thus keeping the rise within the predicted range.

So the models have in fact correctly predicted sea level rise.

[k***@kymhorsell.com]

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our current
390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1?C warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

...

Yes, which is strange, given he's hero's oft-quoted statement to
that effect.

It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other
changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2
concentration would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about
1 deg. F). This is NOT a controversial statement -- it is well understood
by climate scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to 45% of the
way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2.)
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming 101", 2008


And given the observation -- confirmed by a former skeptic -- that

Our research shows a rolling record of the earth's mean surface temperature.
The warming figures reveal a common trend. Since pre-industrial times, all
point to a warming of the earth to around 0.75 degrees.
-- Richard Muller, Jul 16 2011

we seem to be well ahead of "only CO2 with no other effect
taken into account".


If an increase of 1C means 7% more water vapour, and H2O is 3x better
than CO2 per molecule at trapping heat, then we'd expect if CO2 alone
raised the avg temp 1C (say) water vapour would step that up
by another 1.07*3*1 == 3.2C.

But, hopefully, it won't come to that.

You gotta love it when when the possible fate of civilization hangs on a
"hopeful" interpretation of the basic facts.

"She'll be right, mate" as they say in my part of the world.

Welcome to Egypt.

[Peter Webb]

Post by k***@kymhorsell.com

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our current
390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1?C warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

Well, they exist only inside computer models which demonstrably don't work.

Post by k***@kymhorsell.com
...
Yes, which is strange, given he's hero's oft-quoted statement to
that effect.
It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other
changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2
concentration would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about
1 deg. F). This is NOT a controversial statement -- it is well understood
by climate scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to 45% of the
way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2.)
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming 101", 2008
And given the observation -- confirmed by a former skeptic -- that
Our research shows a rolling record of the earth's mean surface temperature.
The warming figures reveal a common trend. Since pre-industrial times, all
point to a warming of the earth to around 0.75 degrees.
-- Richard Muller, Jul 16 2011
we seem to be well ahead of "only CO2 with no other effect
taken into account".
If an increase of 1C means 7% more water vapour, and H2O is 3x better
than CO2 per molecule at trapping heat, then we'd expect if CO2 alone
raised the avg temp 1C (say) water vapour would step that up
by another 1.07*3*1 == 3.2C.
But, hopefully, it won't come to that.

Well, obviously that formula is wrong, because the observed increase in
temperatures since 1850 has been nowhere near that high. We have only had
0.75 degrees in 160 years; this formula would have the increase at a little
over twice that.

And of course, we are only considering the end points. Include the data in
the middle and it looks more ridiculous; some of the fastest increases were
in the late 19th century, when the annual change in CO2 concentration was
near its lowest.

Post by k***@kymhorsell.com
You gotta love it when when the possible fate of civilization hangs on a
"hopeful" interpretation of the basic facts.
"She'll be right, mate" as they say in my part of the world.
Welcome to Egypt.

Rest assured, the sky is not falling in. Climate has been changing for a
billion years, and the desertification of Egypt is an excellent example. But
mankind has never, ever been in anywhere as good a position to deal with it
now, it hasn't really been much of a problem since civilisations spread
beyond being in just one area (eg Egypt 3,000 years ago) and hence not
dependent on local conditions. The earth has never been in better condition
than it is now, to suggest that we will have any more problem adjusting to
the microscopic changes in climate now than we have had over the last 2,000
years (ie, basically none) is ludicrous.

Post by k***@kymhorsell.com
--
co2 has no climate forcing effect and is not a greenhouse gas and, for that
matter, neither is water vapour.
Nobody seems to be able to explain how CO2 can warm the surface without
quickly drifting off into non-physical, unobservable claims.
-- Bill Ward, 27 Jul 2011

[Thomas Heger]

Post by k***@kymhorsell.com

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our current
390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1?C warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

...
Yes, which is strange, given he's hero's oft-quoted statement to
that effect.
It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other
changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2
concentration would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about
1 deg. F). This is NOT a controversial statement -- it is well understood
by climate scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to 45% of the
way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2.)
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming 101", 2008
And given the observation -- confirmed by a former skeptic -- that
Our research shows a rolling record of the earth's mean surface temperature.
The warming figures reveal a common trend. Since pre-industrial times, all
point to a warming of the earth to around 0.75 degrees.
-- Richard Muller, Jul 16 2011
we seem to be well ahead of "only CO2 with no other effect
taken into account".
If an increase of 1C means 7% more water vapour, and H2O is 3x better
than CO2 per molecule at trapping heat, then we'd expect if CO2 alone
raised the avg temp 1C (say) water vapour would step that up
by another 1.07*3*1 == 3.2C.

The entire discussion about climate change is in my eyes silly and
unscientific.

What actually is so 'unscientific'?

First question: is there an effect at all?

Well, who knows. It is by no means obvious, that an atmosphere, that is
a little less transparent to infrared will cause 'climate change'.

At first glance and from usual experience I would assume, that clouds
and sunlight effect the weather, possibly the temperature of the water
and maybe wind.

The 'greenhouse effect' wouldn't be something, I would assume. Well,
that doesn't say very much. But - really- does it happen at all?

If the air is less transparent for infrared, than possibly this
radiation gets absorbed somewhere high in the sky. But how should this
lead to higher temperatures on the ground?

The surface is heated by sunlight - mainly. So less radiation should
heat less. But maybe I misunderstood something.


The air seems to be quite transparent in any case. Except if there are
clouds or dust.

Clouds seem to have a strong effect on 'climate' (actually the term
'weather' would be more appropriate). The Earth gets more sunlight with
less clouds. Or it could cool more in winter, because the loss of heat.
But CO2 does not work like a cloud. It does not reflect infrared, only
absorb. So possibly the air gets warmer (slightly).

CO2 is not very abundant, since we measure it in parts per million. So
it is quite rare actually. And it is quite useful, too, since plants
breath it in, like we breath in oxygen.

But the air is by no means the only generator of the climate. The main
actors are land and sea.

Most of the Earth is covered with water. And the oceans are deep. So the
temperature of the deep ocean waters is a significant factor.

But this temperature never changes. This is due to the anomaly of water,
that keeps a certain temperature of 4°C at high pressure.

This is also a significant problem for the assumption of
'sea-level-rising'. But water bears another problem: the specific heat
of water is enormously higher than of air. This will render the
influence of air temperature on global climate negligible.

A very significant problem for Sea-level-rising is actually
sea-level-falling. That is highly controversial, but I assume the so
called 'Growing Earth Hypothesis' is correct, what would cause falling
sea levels. (why falling: just assume more surface for the same water.
That would lead to coastlines falling dry).

So there is a problem with some assumptions and whether or not they are
valid. Scientist usually try to find out, if assumptions are valid by
testing them. A simple test would be to measure the global mean
temperatures for a longer period of time. Only simple in principle,
because thermometers are simple and well known devices, but difficult to
do.

Measuring the size of the Earth is difficult, too, but not impossible.
Actually there are people thinking, this hypothesis is correct (like
Neil Adams), but test are not performed.

Then it would be interesting to know, how much difference the air
temperature would experience with different amount of CO2. This could be
tested in a laboratory. Question would be: is there a measurable effect
at all?



TH

[troppo]

Post by Thomas Heger

Post by k***@kymhorsell.com

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our
current 390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1?C warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

...
Yes, which is strange, given he's hero's oft-quoted statement to
that effect.
It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other
changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2
concentration would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about
1 deg. F). This is NOT a controversial statement -- it is well
understood by climate scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to
45% of the way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2.)
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming 101", 2008
And given the observation -- confirmed by a former skeptic -- that
Our research shows a rolling record of the earth's mean surface
temperature. The warming figures reveal a common trend. Since
pre-industrial times, all point to a warming of the earth to around
0.75 degrees. -- Richard Muller, Jul 16 2011
we seem to be well ahead of "only CO2 with no other effect
taken into account".
If an increase of 1C means 7% more water vapour, and H2O is 3x better
than CO2 per molecule at trapping heat, then we'd expect if CO2 alone
raised the avg temp 1C (say) water vapour would step that up
by another 1.07*3*1 == 3.2C.

The entire discussion about climate change is in my eyes silly and
unscientific.

Some interesting observations here - you are following the "logic" and it
doesn't seem to make sense ...

Muller, quoted above, is using the same temperature records as everybody
else. They show a warming of +/- 0.75 degrees. The sneaky bit is "Since
pre-industrial times ... " implying that human beings have had something
significant to do with this. The climate has been stable but is not static.
It fluctuates as a result of a number of cycles of varying length. (I doubt
he's a "former skeptic" - there are very few of those. More likely a fence-
sitter.)

The "1.07*3*1 == 3.2C" is the positive feedback, essential to the alarmist
AGW or rebadged "climate change" but unproven. Positive feedback is very
rare in nature, and is only mooted by some "climate scientists. It now
appears far more likely that the net effect is negative feedback.

Post by Thomas Heger
What actually is so 'unscientific'?
First question: is there an effect at all?
Well, who knows. It is by no means obvious, that an atmosphere, that
is a little less transparent to infrared will cause 'climate change'.
At first glance and from usual experience I would assume, that clouds
and sunlight effect the weather, possibly the temperature of the water
and maybe wind.
The 'greenhouse effect' wouldn't be something, I would assume. Well,
that doesn't say very much. But - really- does it happen at all?

It does occur, but has never up to now been considered as significant in my
field (climate-responsive design), only the real greenhouse effect eg
sunlight passing through glass.

Post by Thomas Heger
If the air is less transparent for infrared, than possibly this
radiation gets absorbed somewhere high in the sky. But how should
this lead to higher temperatures on the ground?
The surface is heated by sunlight - mainly. So less radiation should
heat less. But maybe I misunderstood something.
The air seems to be quite transparent in any case. Except if there are
clouds or dust.
Clouds seem to have a strong effect on 'climate' (actually the term
'weather' would be more appropriate). The Earth gets more sunlight
with less clouds. Or it could cool more in winter, because the loss of
heat. But CO2 does not work like a cloud. It does not reflect
infrared, only absorb. So possibly the air gets warmer (slightly).

Both effects occur. Global average temperature is slightly lower during the
southern hemisphere summer because SH summers are generally wetter than SH
winters, and there is therefore more cloud cover.

Post by Thomas Heger
CO2 is not very abundant, since we measure it in parts per million. So
it is quite rare actually. And it is quite useful, too, since plants
breath it in, like we breath in oxygen.
But the air is by no means the only generator of the climate. The main
actors are land and sea.

Yes, but have a look at

http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/potential-climatic-variables/

Post by Thomas Heger
Most of the Earth is covered with water. And the oceans are deep. So
the temperature of the deep ocean waters is a significant factor.
But this temperature never changes. This is due to the anomaly of
water, that keeps a certain temperature of 4°C at high pressure.

And there now seems to be a maximum deep ocean surface temperature:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/12/argo-and-the-ocean-temperature-
maximum/

Post by Thomas Heger
This is also a significant problem for the assumption of
'sea-level-rising'. But water bears another problem: the specific heat
of water is enormously higher than of air. This will render the
influence of air temperature on global climate negligible.
A very significant problem for Sea-level-rising is actually
sea-level-falling. That is highly controversial, but I assume the so
called 'Growing Earth Hypothesis' is correct, what would cause falling
sea levels. (why falling: just assume more surface for the same water.
That would lead to coastlines falling dry).

Constant puzzle to those of us who have to keep an eye on tide gauges and
don't see significant change over time.

I don't know about the 'growing earth hypothesis'. I do know that around
here, land accumulates something like 4 tonnes of soil material per hectare
per annum. Some of this is washed off into the ocean, is carried by the
tides, and results in coastline accretion.

Post by Thomas Heger
So there is a problem with some assumptions and whether or not they
are valid. Scientist usually try to find out, if assumptions are valid
by testing them. A simple test would be to measure the global mean
temperatures for a longer period of time. Only simple in principle,
because thermometers are simple and well known devices, but difficult
to do.
Measuring the size of the Earth is difficult, too, but not impossible.
Actually there are people thinking, this hypothesis is correct (like
Neil Adams), but test are not performed.
Then it would be interesting to know, how much difference the air
temperature would experience with different amount of CO2. This could
be tested in a laboratory. Question would be: is there a measurable
effect at all?
TH

[Thomas Heger]

Post by troppo

Post by Thomas Heger

Post by k***@kymhorsell.com

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our
current 390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1?C warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

...
Yes, which is strange, given he's hero's oft-quoted statement to
that effect.
It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other
changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2
concentration would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about
1 deg. F). This is NOT a controversial statement -- it is well
understood by climate scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to
45% of the way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2.)
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming 101", 2008
And given the observation -- confirmed by a former skeptic -- that
Our research shows a rolling record of the earth's mean surface
temperature. The warming figures reveal a common trend. Since
pre-industrial times, all point to a warming of the earth to around
0.75 degrees. -- Richard Muller, Jul 16 2011
we seem to be well ahead of "only CO2 with no other effect
taken into account".
If an increase of 1C means 7% more water vapour, and H2O is 3x better
than CO2 per molecule at trapping heat, then we'd expect if CO2 alone
raised the avg temp 1C (say) water vapour would step that up
by another 1.07*3*1 == 3.2C.

The entire discussion about climate change is in my eyes silly and
unscientific.

Some interesting observations here - you are following the "logic" and it
doesn't seem to make sense ...
Muller, quoted above, is using the same temperature records as everybody
else. They show a warming of +/- 0.75 degrees. The sneaky bit is "Since
pre-industrial times ... " implying that human beings have had something
significant to do with this. The climate has been stable but is not static.
It fluctuates as a result of a number of cycles of varying length. (I doubt
he's a "former skeptic" - there are very few of those. More likely a fence-
sitter.)
The "1.07*3*1 == 3.2C" is the positive feedback, essential to the alarmist
AGW or rebadged "climate change" but unproven. Positive feedback is very
rare in nature, and is only mooted by some "climate scientists. It now
appears far more likely that the net effect is negative feedback.

Post by Thomas Heger
What actually is so 'unscientific'?
First question: is there an effect at all?
Well, who knows. It is by no means obvious, that an atmosphere, that
is a little less transparent to infrared will cause 'climate change'.
At first glance and from usual experience I would assume, that clouds
and sunlight effect the weather, possibly the temperature of the water
and maybe wind.
The 'greenhouse effect' wouldn't be something, I would assume. Well,
that doesn't say very much. But - really- does it happen at all?

It does occur, but has never up to now been considered as significant in my
field (climate-responsive design), only the real greenhouse effect eg
sunlight passing through glass.

Post by Thomas Heger
If the air is less transparent for infrared, than possibly this
radiation gets absorbed somewhere high in the sky. But how should
this lead to higher temperatures on the ground?
The surface is heated by sunlight - mainly. So less radiation should
heat less. But maybe I misunderstood something.
The air seems to be quite transparent in any case. Except if there are
clouds or dust.
Clouds seem to have a strong effect on 'climate' (actually the term
'weather' would be more appropriate). The Earth gets more sunlight
with less clouds. Or it could cool more in winter, because the loss of
heat. But CO2 does not work like a cloud. It does not reflect
infrared, only absorb. So possibly the air gets warmer (slightly).

Both effects occur. Global average temperature is slightly lower during the
southern hemisphere summer because SH summers are generally wetter than SH
winters, and there is therefore more cloud cover.

Post by Thomas Heger
CO2 is not very abundant, since we measure it in parts per million. So
it is quite rare actually. And it is quite useful, too, since plants
breath it in, like we breath in oxygen.
But the air is by no means the only generator of the climate. The main
actors are land and sea.

Yes, but have a look at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/potential-climatic-variables/

Post by Thomas Heger
Most of the Earth is covered with water. And the oceans are deep. So
the temperature of the deep ocean waters is a significant factor.
But this temperature never changes. This is due to the anomaly of
water, that keeps a certain temperature of 4°C at high pressure.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/12/argo-and-the-ocean-temperature-
maximum/

Post by Thomas Heger
This is also a significant problem for the assumption of
'sea-level-rising'. But water bears another problem: the specific heat
of water is enormously higher than of air. This will render the
influence of air temperature on global climate negligible.
A very significant problem for Sea-level-rising is actually
sea-level-falling. That is highly controversial, but I assume the so
called 'Growing Earth Hypothesis' is correct, what would cause falling
sea levels. (why falling: just assume more surface for the same water.
That would lead to coastlines falling dry).

Constant puzzle to those of us who have to keep an eye on tide gauges and
don't see significant change over time.
I don't know about the 'growing earth hypothesis'. I do know that around
here, land accumulates something like 4 tonnes of soil material per hectare
per annum. Some of this is washed off into the ocean, is carried by the
tides, and results in coastline accretion.

Interesting number!
personally I think, that homes gather more material per square meter
than land.

I think, that dust could be generated 'real time' and inside sealed
boxes, by means that are primarily 'electric'. This was my assumption,
that I tried to prove. This assumption stems from a model about matter,
that I have developed. This model works without particles, but models
atoms as kind of disturbance. This could be created artificially, by
e.g. pulsed microwaves.

I cannot test this, because I have no laboratory to do that. But
'Growing Earth' is possible to test. This could be done by observation
of the planet Earth. Prime tool: Google.Earth.

The assumption is, that growing Earth would lead to falling sea-levels
(on extremely large timescales).

So the GE-hypothesis could be proven by finding geological formations,
that could best explained by falling sea-levels.

There are actually MANY hints for falling sea-levels: Atolls for
example. They consist of coral remains and coral live in water.
Deserts could be nicely explained as former sea-floor.

Horizontal lines in mountains as former coast lines, with receding water.

My favourite example is the Atacama desert. That is a high plain in
Chile. There are various structures, that look like very old cities
along a former coast line.
( 20°11'2.23"S, 69°48'2.51"W)

These are man-made, since there are large drawings- kind of 'land
art'. Only problem, the Atacama desert is the driest place on Earth and
dry for 15 million years. It is also a salt plain and quite high. This
would all fit nicely to the GE-hypothesis, but has server problems with
anthropology.

But that wouldn't bother me much (if people exist much longer than we
think).

Neil Adams made his nice animations about GE and there were many people,
that contributed to his mailing list. But recognition is about zero. But
how could people believe, their models are valid, if such questions are
not settled? (plate tectonics versus growing Earth)

It's all bad science, but the CO2 greenhouse effect is among the worst.
I do not even say, it doesn't exist. But science is about 'how much'.
How effective is such an effect - if it would exist at all.


TH

[Surfer]

Post by Thomas Heger
The entire discussion about climate change is in my eyes silly and
unscientific.
What actually is so 'unscientific'?
First question: is there an effect at all?

Yes.

Post by Thomas Heger
If the air is less transparent for infrared, than possibly this
radiation gets absorbed somewhere high in the sky. But how should this
lead to higher temperatures on the ground?

The radiation that is being absorbed is infrared radiation emitted by
the earth. So maximum absorption occurs in air at ground level. As
altitude increases there is less radiation to be absorbed, because of
the absorption that has occured lower down.

So maximum warming occurs at ground level, and...
http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-warming.htm

".....Satellite and surface measurements find less energy is escaping
to space at CO2 absorption wavelengths. Ocean and surface temperature
measurements find the planet continues to accumulate heat. This gives
a line of empirical evidence that human CO2 emissions are causing
global warming."

Post by Thomas Heger
The surface is heated by sunlight - mainly. So less radiation should
heat less. But maybe I misunderstood something.

Yes. Your statement suggests you thought that CO2 absorbs energy from
sunlight. However, sunlight contains almost no energy in the
wavelengths absorbed by CO2, so this is not the problem

The problem is, that the natural average temperature of the earth
normally causes the earth to radiate to space the same amount of
energy as it receives from the sun.

However, the earth radiates energy as infrared radiation which
contains some energy in the wavelengths absorbed by CO2.

So artifically increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere causes
the earth to radiate slightly less energy than it receives from the
sun.

This imbalance will then cause the average temperature of the earth to
increase, until the earth is once again radiating as much energy as it
absorbs from the sun.


More details here:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-warming.htm

[troppo]

Post by Surfer

Post by Thomas Heger
The entire discussion about climate change is in my eyes silly and
unscientific.
What actually is so 'unscientific'?
First question: is there an effect at all?

Yes.

Post by Thomas Heger
If the air is less transparent for infrared, than possibly this
radiation gets absorbed somewhere high in the sky. But how should this
lead to higher temperatures on the ground?

The radiation that is being absorbed is infrared radiation emitted by
the earth.

The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has absorbed from
the sun.

Post by Surfer
So maximum absorption occurs in air at ground level. As
altitude increases there is less radiation to be absorbed, because of
the absorption that has occured lower down.

Daft. Birds use thermal updrafts to hover without flapping wings, cows
camp on bitumen at night because the heat is rising off it. Both know
more about climate that John Cook.

Post by Surfer
So maximum warming occurs at ground level, and...
http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-

warming.htm

Post by Surfer
".....Satellite and surface measurements find less energy is escaping
to space at CO2 absorption wavelengths. Ocean and surface temperature
measurements find the planet continues to accumulate heat. This gives
a line of empirical evidence that human CO2 emissions are causing
global warming."

[snip]

Entirely leaves out other effects such as cloud. Clouds during the day
reduce incoming energy because it is being reflected back. This is one of
the reasons why the global average temperature is lower when it is summer
in the southern hemisphere.

Hot outback (desert) nights much colder when the sky is clear, warmer
when there is cloud.

[Thomas Heger]

Post by troppo

Post by Surfer

Post by Thomas Heger
First question: is there an effect at all?

Yes.

Post by Thomas Heger
If the air is less transparent for infrared, than possibly this
radiation gets absorbed somewhere high in the sky. But how should this
lead to higher temperatures on the ground?

The radiation that is being absorbed is infrared radiation emitted by
the earth.

The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has absorbed from
the sun.

Post by Surfer
So maximum absorption occurs in air at ground level. As
altitude increases there is less radiation to be absorbed, because of
the absorption that has occured lower down.

Daft. Birds use thermal updrafts to hover without flapping wings, cows
camp on bitumen at night because the heat is rising off it. Both know
more about climate that John Cook.

..

Post by troppo
Entirely leaves out other effects such as cloud. Clouds during the day
reduce incoming energy because it is being reflected back. This is one of
the reasons why the global average temperature is lower when it is summer
in the southern hemisphere.
Hot outback (desert) nights much colder when the sky is clear, warmer
when there is cloud.

There was no doubt, that clouds could keep the surface warmer at night.
But could CO2 do that, too?

Actually not, since the air is transparent, because we experience
cooling without clouds.

So clouds have an effect and clear blue sky has not (with or without
CO2). That is what everyday experience says. But if climate scientists
are so alarmed about a certain trace gas, than they should at least
provide evidence, that there is an effect of this gas.



But


TH

[troppo]

Post by Thomas Heger

Post by troppo

Post by Surfer

Post by Thomas Heger
First question: is there an effect at all?

Yes.

Post by Thomas Heger
If the air is less transparent for infrared, than possibly this
radiation gets absorbed somewhere high in the sky. But how should
this lead to higher temperatures on the ground?

The radiation that is being absorbed is infrared radiation emitted
by the earth.

The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has absorbed
from the sun.

Post by Surfer
So maximum absorption occurs in air at ground level. As
altitude increases there is less radiation to be absorbed, because
of the absorption that has occured lower down.

Daft. Birds use thermal updrafts to hover without flapping wings,
cows camp on bitumen at night because the heat is rising off it. Both
know more about climate that John Cook.

..

Post by troppo
Entirely leaves out other effects such as cloud. Clouds during the
day reduce incoming energy because it is being reflected back. This
is one of the reasons why the global average temperature is lower
when it is summer in the southern hemisphere.
Hot outback (desert) nights much colder when the sky is clear, warmer
when there is cloud.

There was no doubt, that clouds could keep the surface warmer at
night. But could CO2 do that, too?
Actually not, since the air is transparent, because we experience
cooling without clouds.
So clouds have an effect and clear blue sky has not (with or without
CO2). That is what everyday experience says. But if climate scientists
are so alarmed about a certain trace gas, than they should at least
provide evidence, that there is an effect of this gas.

CO2 does have an effect, but at 0.04% ppm, the effect is minimal.

Cenospheres, ceramic beads 200-300 microns thick, hollow, containing CO2,
constituent of fly-ash from coal-fired power stations, has an insulating
effect if combined with paint (and other construction materials), greater
than the material has without it. So yes - CO2 does inhibit heat transfer.

The alarmists have made a fundamental error in supposing that the rise in
temperature is caused by CO2. They then plotted a more or less straight
line rising trend of temperature and CO2. The error is similar to other
errors made in the past, eg a rising population trend, projected to the
point where there is standing room only on the planet. If, in the same way,
you plot the decline in birth rates, or the discrepancy between birth rates
and long-term population replacement rates, you find that population starts
to drop after a few years, and by say 2050, the population has halved.

There is increasing evidence that Miskolczi's saturated greenhouse theory
is correct, eg increased CO2 does have an effect, but flat-lines at around
a doubling of CO2 around 560 ppm.

CO2 is not as well-mixed in the atmosphere as is claimed by alarmists. For
a start, it is heavier than air. Satellite and other measurements show
significant variation across the globe. I have the capacity to measure CO2
levels, and happen to live on the shore line of the Coral Sea. There is no
industry or human habitation out there, but from time to time the CO2 level
rises significantly when I monitor on-shore winds. This can only be the
result of out-gassing from the ocean, and is evidence that the Carbon Cycle
theory (the real one, not the propaganda version now being taught in
schools) is correct.

[Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax]

Post by troppo
Cenospheres, ceramic beads 200-300 microns thick, hollow, containing CO2,
constituent of fly-ash from coal-fired power stations, has an insulating
effect if combined with paint (and other construction materials), greater
than the material has without it

Just BTW, cenospheres represent an excellent hardening/ strengthening
filler for some polymer resins. Did some research on this many moons ago
and was able to produce materials with comparable strength/ hardness to
glass (solid) _bead_ filled resins, but lighter and way better
machinability, due to the hollows in the microspheres. We did our work
on "Pozispheres" (glass balloons) IIRC. We also looked at them as
candidates in ablative coatings.

[troppo]

Post by Oy Rool Out a Carbon Tax

Post by troppo
Cenospheres, ceramic beads 200-300 microns thick, hollow, containing
CO2, constituent of fly-ash from coal-fired power stations, has an
insulating effect if combined with paint (and other construction
materials), greater than the material has without it

Just BTW, cenospheres represent an excellent hardening/ strengthening
filler for some polymer resins. Did some research on this many moons
ago and was able to produce materials with comparable strength/
hardness to glass (solid) _bead_ filled resins, but lighter and way
better machinability, due to the hollows in the microspheres. We did
our work on "Pozispheres" (glass balloons) IIRC. We also looked at
them as candidates in ablative coatings.

Yep - Pozispheres are Boral's name for them. They get used in spacecraft,
space suits, pipe insulation in nuclear power plants. Been thinking of
doing some R-value trials using the paint version, but I'd need to buy more
temperature dataloggers. Things we could do if the research money wasn't
all being spent on AGW crap :-)

There's currently no way to get the insulation value recognised under the
NCC (formerly Building Code Australia) because energy efficiency is based
on R-values, which depend on thickness, eg mostly bulk materials like
insulation quilt, polystyrene.

The only way to get credit for cenospheres is reflectivity values in paint.

I'm wondering if the problem is that they are only produced in coal-fired
power stations, so they are taboo ?

[Thomas Heger]

Post by troppo

Post by Thomas Heger

Post by troppo

Post by Surfer

Post by Thomas Heger
First question: is there an effect at all?

Yes.

Post by Thomas Heger
If the air is less transparent for infrared, than possibly this
radiation gets absorbed somewhere high in the sky. But how should
this lead to higher temperatures on the ground?

The radiation that is being absorbed is infrared radiation emitted
by the earth.

The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has absorbed
from the sun.

Post by Surfer
So maximum absorption occurs in air at ground level. As
altitude increases there is less radiation to be absorbed, because
of the absorption that has occured lower down.

Daft. Birds use thermal updrafts to hover without flapping wings,
cows camp on bitumen at night because the heat is rising off it. Both
know more about climate that John Cook.

..

Post by troppo
Entirely leaves out other effects such as cloud. Clouds during the
day reduce incoming energy because it is being reflected back. This
is one of the reasons why the global average temperature is lower
when it is summer in the southern hemisphere.
Hot outback (desert) nights much colder when the sky is clear, warmer
when there is cloud.

There was no doubt, that clouds could keep the surface warmer at
night. But could CO2 do that, too?
Actually not, since the air is transparent, because we experience
cooling without clouds.
So clouds have an effect and clear blue sky has not (with or without
CO2). That is what everyday experience says. But if climate scientists
are so alarmed about a certain trace gas, than they should at least
provide evidence, that there is an effect of this gas.

CO2 does have an effect, but at 0.04% ppm, the effect is minimal.

CO2 is quite rare, but not that rare. There are about 380 ppm CO2 in the
atmosphere. That is roughly 4 parts in ten thousand parts of air.
So 9996 parts of 10000 parts are not CO2 and 4 are CO2.

If the effect is proportional to the amount, than the effect would be
absorption of 380 ppm of the radiation in the band of CO2 from the total
of radiation.

Even that is not known, but it seems to be assumed, that the absorption
is proportional to the percentage of CO2.

Climate science is a little unclear at this point, but lets assume, the
absorption is proportional to the amount of gas. Than we have a VERY
small effect, since CO2 is so rare.

But not even this is certain, because what will happen to the heated up CO2?

Certainly it will cool down anyhow, maybe a little later the same night
--- who knows?

But questions like this should be answered, otherwise the entire
discussion is a farce.


TH

[troppo]

Post by Thomas Heger

Post by troppo

Post by Thomas Heger

Post by troppo

Post by Surfer

Post by Thomas Heger
First question: is there an effect at all?

Yes.

Post by Thomas Heger
If the air is less transparent for infrared, than possibly this
radiation gets absorbed somewhere high in the sky. But how
should this lead to higher temperatures on the ground?

The radiation that is being absorbed is infrared radiation emitted
by the earth.

The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has absorbed
from the sun.

Post by Surfer
So maximum absorption occurs in air at ground level. As
altitude increases there is less radiation to be absorbed, because
of the absorption that has occured lower down.

Daft. Birds use thermal updrafts to hover without flapping wings,
cows camp on bitumen at night because the heat is rising off it.
Both know more about climate that John Cook.

..

Post by troppo
Entirely leaves out other effects such as cloud. Clouds during the
day reduce incoming energy because it is being reflected back. This
is one of the reasons why the global average temperature is lower
when it is summer in the southern hemisphere.
Hot outback (desert) nights much colder when the sky is clear,
warmer when there is cloud.

There was no doubt, that clouds could keep the surface warmer at
night. But could CO2 do that, too?
Actually not, since the air is transparent, because we experience
cooling without clouds.
So clouds have an effect and clear blue sky has not (with or without
CO2). That is what everyday experience says. But if climate
scientists are so alarmed about a certain trace gas, than they
should at least provide evidence, that there is an effect of this
gas.

CO2 does have an effect, but at 0.04% ppm, the effect is minimal.

CO2 is quite rare, but not that rare. There are about 380 ppm CO2 in
the atmosphere. That is roughly 4 parts in ten thousand parts of air.
So 9996 parts of 10000 parts are not CO2 and 4 are CO2.
If the effect is proportional to the amount, than the effect would be
absorption of 380 ppm of the radiation in the band of CO2 from the
total of radiation.
Even that is not known, but it seems to be assumed, that the
absorption is proportional to the percentage of CO2.
Climate science is a little unclear at this point, but lets assume,
the absorption is proportional to the amount of gas. Than we have a
VERY small effect, since CO2 is so rare.
But not even this is certain, because what will happen to the heated up CO2?
Certainly it will cool down anyhow, maybe a little later the same
night --- who knows?
But questions like this should be answered, otherwise the entire
discussion is a farce.
TH

The issue is the alleged positive feedbacks from an increase in CO2
concentrations.

Look up "Miskolczi saturated greenhouse effect "

Dr Ferenc Miskolczi and Dr Miklos Zagoni have been put under pressure to
be silent about Miskolczi`s research concerning the atmosphere and the
greenhouse effect.

This stuff is hard to understand.

http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/The_Saturated_Greenhouse
_Effect.htm

http://www.scribd.com/doc/25071132/The-Saturated-Greenhouse-Effect-
Theory-of-Ferenc-Miskolczi

http://jennifermarohasy.com/2009/05/the-climatically-saturated-
greenhouse-effect/

WUWT link:
http://tinyurl.com/7rt25rb

View the graphs - 2006, Willis Eschenbach. The effect of CO2 flattens out
with increasing concentration.
(It's a bit like the diminishing effect of sunscreen: 50+ is only very
slightly more effective than 30+.)

A recent article seems to support the theory:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00003.1
Surface Water Vapor Pressure and Temperature Trends in North America
during 1948-2010
V. Isaac and W. A. van Wijngaarden
However, Miskolczi himself has doubts about this paper.

Conclusion may be, the answer isn't quite there yet, but this is the area
to look.

No one in the CAGW camp is looking at it, presumably because if it is
correct, their entire theory collapses.

[Regnad Kcin]

Post by troppo
The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has absorbed
from the sun.

The previous statement is false.
It ignores deep IR and other radiances due to planetary inductive tidal
forces and radioactive heating native to the planet, and other inherent
processes not strictly due to Solar activity.


--- Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net/ - Complaints to ***@netfront.net ---

[troppo]

Post by Regnad Kcin

Post by troppo
The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has
absorbed from the sun.

The previous statement is false.
It ignores deep IR and other radiances due to planetary inductive
tidal forces and radioactive heating native to the planet, and other
inherent processes not strictly due to Solar activity.

And are insignificant compared to solar activity. If they weren't, you can
be sure the CAGW proponents would be adding them to their shock/horror
energy balance stuff.

[Regnad Kcin]

Post by troppo

Post by Regnad Kcin

Post by troppo
The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has
absorbed from the sun.

The previous statement is false.
It ignores deep IR and other radiances due to planetary inductive
tidal forces and radioactive heating native to the planet, and other
inherent processes not strictly due to Solar activity.

And are insignificant compared to solar activity. If they weren't, you can
be sure the CAGW proponents would be adding them to their shock/horror
energy balance stuff.

Yep.
Only it shows that they do not consider some processes valid for their model
and
that they have no idea how those processes could change to cause their model
to fail.
This has been the Liberal AGWers problem all along.
Static Thinking.


--- Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net/ - Complaints to ***@netfront.net ---

[Thomas Heger]

Post by Regnad Kcin

Post by troppo

Post by Regnad Kcin

Post by troppo
The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has
absorbed from the sun.

The previous statement is false.
It ignores deep IR and other radiances due to planetary inductive
tidal forces and radioactive heating native to the planet, and other
inherent processes not strictly due to Solar activity.

And are insignificant compared to solar activity. If they weren't, you can
be sure the CAGW proponents would be adding them to their shock/horror
energy balance stuff.

Yep.
Only it shows that they do not consider some processes valid for their
model and
that they have no idea how those processes could change to cause their
model to fail.
This has been the Liberal AGWers problem all along.
Static Thinking.

There is something VERY strange:

the inventor of AGW was an *amateur meteorologist* named G.S. Callender.

His bio is:
"This material is held at University of East Anglia" ...

There seem to exist only one single photography of this guy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guy_Stewart_Callendar

http://www.uea.ac.uk/is/archives/callendar

"Beginning in 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964), a noted steam
engineer and amateur meteorologist, revived the carbon dioxide theory of
climate change by arguing that rising global temperatures and increased
coal burning were closely linked. Working from his home in West Sussex,
Callendar collected weather data from frontier stations around the
world, formulated a coherent theory of infrared absorption by trace
gases, and demonstrated that the carbon dioxide content of the
atmosphere, like the temperature, was indeed rising. This later became
known as the "Callendar effect"."

Since 'noted engineers' that lived in the 20th century have certainly
more photographies than one, the similarity and scarcity of biographical
data is a hint to a 'faked person'.

Since British intelligence has a long history of faking events, things
and persons, the question would be, if this person was 'real'.

(If not, this would add a few more twists to an already twisted story...)


TH

[Regnad Kcin]

Post by Thomas Heger

Post by Regnad Kcin

Post by troppo

Post by Regnad Kcin

Post by troppo
The earth does not emit radiation. It re-emits what it has
absorbed from the sun.

The previous statement is false.
It ignores deep IR and other radiances due to planetary inductive
tidal forces and radioactive heating native to the planet, and other
inherent processes not strictly due to Solar activity.

And are insignificant compared to solar activity. If they weren't, you can
be sure the CAGW proponents would be adding them to their shock/horror
energy balance stuff.

Yep.
Only it shows that they do not consider some processes valid for their
model and
that they have no idea how those processes could change to cause their
model to fail.
This has been the Liberal AGWers problem all along.
Static Thinking.

the inventor of AGW was an *amateur meteorologist* named G.S. Callender.
"This material is held at University of East Anglia" ...
There seem to exist only one single photography of this guy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guy_Stewart_Callendar
http://www.uea.ac.uk/is/archives/callendar
"Beginning in 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964), a noted steam
engineer and amateur meteorologist, revived the carbon dioxide theory of
climate change by arguing that rising global temperatures and increased
coal burning were closely linked. Working from his home in West Sussex,
Callendar collected weather data from frontier stations around the world,
formulated a coherent theory of infrared absorption by trace gases, and
demonstrated that the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere, like the
temperature, was indeed rising. This later became known as the "Callendar
effect"."
Since 'noted engineers' that lived in the 20th century have certainly more
photographies than one, the similarity and scarcity of biographical data
is a hint to a 'faked person'.
Since British intelligence has a long history of faking events, things and
persons, the question would be, if this person was 'real'.
(If not, this would add a few more twists to an already twisted story...)
TH

I'm thinking that's rather like Scientology: invented at a bar as a bet.
Look what havoc it has manifested in those obsessed by it.
I investigated that cult and found extensive fakery masquerading as
"science",
using primitive cobbled together basic electrical instruments that they use
to "Prove" their case.
AGW is a larger scale version of the Scientology scam.


--- Posted via news://freenews.netfront.net/ - Complaints to ***@netfront.net ---

[Thomas Heger]

Am 26.02.2012 21:27, schrieb troppo:
tp://www.scribd.com/doc/25071132/The-Saturated-Greenhouse-Effect-

Post by troppo
Theory-of-Ferenc-Miskolczi
http://jennifermarohasy.com/2009/05/the-climatically-saturated-
greenhouse-effect/
http://tinyurl.com/7rt25rb
View the graphs - 2006, Willis Eschenbach. The effect of CO2 flattens out
with increasing concentration.
(It's a bit like the diminishing effect of sunscreen: 50+ is only very
slightly more effective than 30+.)

Well, nice article.

My intuition would tell me the same thing: a little amount of pollutant
has a relatively large effect, but more of the same stuff doesn't change
much.
So we have a VERY flat curve of dependency between CO2 concentration and
the effect of CO2 (whether or not significant), (because the
concentrations we have are in the flat realm of the curve)

But the text claims, that there is also a negative feedback, due to
influence on water vapour, what makes the effect negligible.

Quote from that page:

"The two pillars on which the rotten edifice of Global Warmery totters
are (a) Sensitivity and (b) Feedback. The above work hacks away at pillar b.

If the climate’s sensitivity to rising CO2 is dwarfed by other
influences (IPCC AR4 says CO2′s the biggie) then that pillar is
demolished. If temperature changes have a self-correcting tendency
(negative feedback) rather than self-escalating (positive), then the
other pillar goes.

In short, the scare story evaporates if CO2 is no big deal and if warm
things tend to cool."


TH

[SwindledByFakeAGW]

Post by k***@kymhorsell.com

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our current
390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1?C warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.

...
Yes, which is strange, given he's hero's oft-quoted statement to
that effect.
It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other
changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2
concentration would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about
1 deg. F). This is NOT a controversial statement -- it is well understood
by climate scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to 45% of the
way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2.)
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming 101", 2008
And given the observation -- confirmed by a former skeptic -- that
Our research shows a rolling record of the earth's mean surface temperature.
The warming figures reveal a common trend. Since pre-industrial times, all
point to a warming of the earth to around 0.75 degrees.
-- Richard Muller, Jul 16 2011
we seem to be well ahead of "only CO2 with no other effect
taken into account".

WRONG.
You can't attribute all of the warming to CO2.
But you knew that didn't you?
Actually most of it is a continuation of the warming as we emerge from the
little ice age.



Here's some elementary forensics for you ...

Climate Forensics 101











At first glance, the two warming periods in the attached graph from the last
century appear identical.

(1910-1945 and 1970-2000)





Yet one is due to natural variability and the other "clearly" has the
fingerprint of humans on it.



If you can pass this test, you are ready to collect millions in climate
fraud money confiscated from taxpayers.



For extra credit, find the fingerprint of Chinese aerosols.



Warmest Regards

B O N Z O

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"A major problem has been the co-option of climate science by politics,
ambition, greed, and what seems to be a hereditary human need for a
righteous cause."
"What better cause than "saving" the planet, especially if one can get
ample, secure funding at the same time?"
William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton
University.

"The claim is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8ºK in
about 150 years, which, if true, means to me that the temperature has been
amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely
improved in this 'warming' period,".
Nobel Laureate Dr. Ivar Giaever:

"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"All it takes to find oneself called a 'denier' is to seek a sense of
proportion about environmental problems"
Mark Lynas, The God Species

Post by k***@kymhorsell.com
If an increase of 1C means 7% more water vapour, and H2O is 3x better
than CO2 per molecule at trapping heat, then we'd expect if CO2 alone
raised the avg temp 1C (say) water vapour would step that up
by another 1.07*3*1 == 3.2C.
But, hopefully, it won't come to that.
You gotta love it when when the possible fate of civilization hangs on a
"hopeful" interpretation of the basic facts.
"She'll be right, mate" as they say in my part of the world.
Welcome to Egypt.
--
co2 has no climate forcing effect and is not a greenhouse gas and, for that
matter, neither is water vapour.
Nobody seems to be able to explain how CO2 can warm the surface without
quickly drifting off into non-physical, unobservable claims.
-- Bill Ward, 27 Jul 2011

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end

[SwindledByFakeAGW]

Post by Surfer
On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 13:43:07 +1100, "HoodwinkedByAGW"

Post by HoodwinkedByAGW
Other things being equal, doubling the CO2 concentration, from our current
390 ppm to 780 ppm will directly cause about 1ºC warming.

He has forgotten additional warming due to positive feedbacks.
Eg the following graph shows that since 1979 the amount of Arctic sea
ice measured in September each year has been declining at an average
rate of 12% per decade.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_09_plot.png
Sea ice reflects sunlight and heat, so less ice means more heat will
be absorbed by the Arctic ocean, which will have an additional warming
effect.
In fact since 2000, the rate of sea ice loss has accelerated.

Yeah right.


Arctic Sea Ice Extent Was Persistently Below Normal In The Early 1970's And
Then Increased 15% By About 1979 According To The IPCC

Feb 13 2012





From the first IPCC report.



Between 1974 and 1978 (when satellites went up) Arctic sea ice extent
increased by 15% as shown in the attached graph below.







By using the 1978 peak as a starting point, alarmists have driven themselves
into a mindless and nonsensical frenzy about death spirals and an ice-free
Arctic.



The attached graph below adds in the missing data (red) from prior to 1978.







TELLS A COMPLETETLY DIFFERENT STORY WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE COMPLETE DATA SET!





Warmest Regards



B O N Z O



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"A major problem has been the co-option of climate science by politics,
ambition, greed, and what seems to be a hereditary human need for a
righteous cause."

"What better cause than "saving" the planet, especially if one can get
ample, secure funding at the same time?"

William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton
University.



"The claim is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8ºK in
about 150 years, which, if true, means to me that the temperature has been
amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely
improved in this 'warming' period,".

Nobel Laureate Dr. Ivar Giaever:



"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"

Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"All it takes to find oneself called a 'denier' is to seek a sense of
proportion about environmental problems"

Mark Lynas, The God Species




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end

[SwindledByFakeAGW]

Your professor friend ignores melting ice, sea level rise and
declining
ocean pH. Fresh water will be a problem for big chunks of population
dependent on glacial melt waters.

If the temperature only rises less than 1?C, then none of the above will
happen!

Loading Image...

I thought the twit was admitting his scenariuo where more warmth+more co2
== better for crop production was a lie.
Even without climate change arable land is disappeaing -- either degraded
by 19C ag practices still in use or co-opted for other uses in
our world of 7 bn mouths.

ROTFLMAO
They were saying exactly the same thing about GLOBAL COOLING in 1975, not to
mention extra tornado devastation!!

One scare after another with totally opposite causes!

Whacko scaremongers!


There are ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to
change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in
food production - with serious political implications for just about every
nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps
only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the
great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along
with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas - parts of India,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia - where the growing season is
dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.

The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so
massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In
England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks
since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at
up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature
around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree - a fraction that in
some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most
devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more
than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars' worth of damage in 13
U.S. states.



Newsweek
The Cooling World
Newsweek, April 28, 1975




Warmest Regards

B O N Z O

"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville

"A major problem has been the co-option of climate science by politics,
ambition, greed, and what seems to be a hereditary human need for a
righteous cause."
"What better cause than "saving" the planet, especially if one can get
ample, secure funding at the same time?"
William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton
University.

"The claim is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8ºK in
about 150 years, which, if true, means to me that the temperature has been
amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely
improved in this 'warming' period,".
Nobel Laureate Dr. Ivar Giaever:

"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author

"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips

"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated

Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher

"All it takes to find oneself called a 'denier' is to seek a sense of
proportion about environmental problems"
Mark Lynas, The God Species

[Hoodwinked By Fake AGW]

On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 10:42:45 -0800 (PST), Paul Cardinale

Speaking for myself, I became an AGW denier when I looked at the
actual data which shows that there is no significant correlation
between changes in CO2 levels and subsequent changes in global
temperature.

Year CO2 Temp F CoVari PPMCC
1959 315.98 57.308
1960 316.91 57.182
1961 317.64 57.326
1962 318.45 57.272
1963 318.99 57.344
1964 319.62 56.822
1965 320.04 57.002
1966 321.38 57.146
1967 322.16 57.182
1968 323.04 57.128
1969 324.62 57.344
1970 325.68 57.254
1971 326.32 57.002
1972 327.45 57.200
1973 329.68 57.452
1974 330.17 57.056
1975 331.08 57.110
1976 332.05 56.912
1977 333.78 57.416
1978 335.41 57.218
1979 336.78 57.344
1980 338.68 57.542
1981 340.11 57.668
1982 341.22 57.272
1983 342.84 57.650 0.785 0.47281
1984 344.41 57.362 0.826 0.47709
1985 345.87 57.272 0.809 0.45130
1986 347.19 57.416 0.884 0.47198
1987 348.98 57.686 1.131 0.54202
1988 351.45 57.758 1.426 0.60647
1989 352.90 57.542 1.554 0.62679
1990 354.16 57.848 1.881 0.67580
1991 355.48 57.830 2.175 0.71290
1992 356.27 57.434 2.181 0.69761
1993 356.95 57.434 2.184 0.68473
1994 358.64 57.614 2.306 0.69754
1995 360.62 57.866 2.595 0.72699
1996 362.36 57.722 2.775 0.74302
1997 363.47 57.902 3.065 0.76602
1998 366.50 58.208 3.581 0.78856
1999 368.14 57.776 3.763 0.79621
2000 369.40 57.794 3.948 0.80385
2001 371.07 58.046 4.308 0.82058
2002 373.17 58.208 4.779 0.83653
2003 375.78 58.190 5.233 0.85106
2004 377.52 58.064 5.574 0.86092
2005 379.76 58.334 6.119 0.87287
2006 381.85 58.190 6.537 0.88202
2007 383.71 58.244 6.983 0.89068
2008 385.57 57.992 7.214 0.89026
2009 387.35 58.244 7.639 0.89728
2010 389.78 58.334 8.131 0.90456
2011 391.57 58.136 8.445 0.90642
Ooops! The correlation interval observed gets stronger as every
year passes. How do you explaoin your behavior now?

Really?


Looking at the period 2000 to 2011 ...

Temperature remains about 58 while CO2 rises from about 369.40 to about
391.57.

My eyeballs tell me there is NO CORRELATION FOR THIS PERIOD!



"My advice to those trying to interprete data presented graphically would be
to use what Professor Harry Roberts, University of Chicago Graduate School
of Business, has described as the world's most powerful statistical analysis
tools - your eyes."



http://www.thehouseofoojah.com/news/index.php?more=95



Mathematics and statistics are only applicable after the relationships have
been determined graphically.

If you cannot see a relationship when it is presented on a graph, you will
not succeed in describing it mathematically.

Will Alexander, UN Scientist

One of the few sceptical scientists who were not vulnerable to threats of
excommunication or dependence on



EXTRACT: The Climate Change Agenda Is Yet Another Version Of Fascism













Warmest Regards



B O N Z O



"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."

Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville



"A major problem has been the co-option of climate science by politics,
ambition, greed, and what seems to be a hereditary human need for a
righteous cause."

"What better cause than "saving" the planet, especially if one can get
ample, secure funding at the same time?"

William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton
University.



"The claim is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8ºK in
about 150 years, which, if true, means to me that the temperature has been
amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely
improved in this 'warming' period,".

Nobel Laureate Dr. Ivar Giaever:



"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"

Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author



"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"

"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips



"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another try
at condemning fossil fuels!"

http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated



Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real problems
that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent cost of a
couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women the daily
journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.

Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher



"All it takes to find oneself called a 'denier' is to seek a sense of
proportion about environmental problems"

Mark Lynas, The God Species

[Hoodwinked By Fake AGW]

Post by Hoodwinked By Fake AGW

On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 10:42:45 -0800 (PST), Paul Cardinale

Speaking for myself, I became an AGW denier when I looked at the
actual data which shows that there is no significant correlation
between changes in CO2 levels and subsequent changes in global
temperature.

Year CO2 Temp F CoVari PPMCC
1959 315.98 57.308
1960 316.91 57.182
1961 317.64 57.326
1962 318.45 57.272
1963 318.99 57.344
1964 319.62 56.822
1965 320.04 57.002
1966 321.38 57.146
1967 322.16 57.182
1968 323.04 57.128
1969 324.62 57.344
1970 325.68 57.254
1971 326.32 57.002
1972 327.45 57.200
1973 329.68 57.452
1974 330.17 57.056
1975 331.08 57.110
1976 332.05 56.912
1977 333.78 57.416
1978 335.41 57.218
1979 336.78 57.344
1980 338.68 57.542
1981 340.11 57.668
1982 341.22 57.272
1983 342.84 57.650 0.785 0.47281
1984 344.41 57.362 0.826 0.47709
1985 345.87 57.272 0.809 0.45130
1986 347.19 57.416 0.884 0.47198
1987 348.98 57.686 1.131 0.54202
1988 351.45 57.758 1.426 0.60647
1989 352.90 57.542 1.554 0.62679
1990 354.16 57.848 1.881 0.67580
1991 355.48 57.830 2.175 0.71290
1992 356.27 57.434 2.181 0.69761
1993 356.95 57.434 2.184 0.68473
1994 358.64 57.614 2.306 0.69754
1995 360.62 57.866 2.595 0.72699
1996 362.36 57.722 2.775 0.74302
1997 363.47 57.902 3.065 0.76602
1998 366.50 58.208 3.581 0.78856
1999 368.14 57.776 3.763 0.79621
2000 369.40 57.794 3.948 0.80385
2001 371.07 58.046 4.308 0.82058
2002 373.17 58.208 4.779 0.83653
2003 375.78 58.190 5.233 0.85106
2004 377.52 58.064 5.574 0.86092
2005 379.76 58.334 6.119 0.87287
2006 381.85 58.190 6.537 0.88202
2007 383.71 58.244 6.983 0.89068
2008 385.57 57.992 7.214 0.89026
2009 387.35 58.244 7.639 0.89728
2010 389.78 58.334 8.131 0.90456
2011 391.57 58.136 8.445 0.90642
Ooops! The correlation interval observed gets stronger as every
year passes. How do you explaoin your behavior now?

IS IT COLD OUTSIDE? ASK A STATISTICIAN!

October 29 2009



This is cute.



All manner of claims have been made by leftists/warmists over the years, yet
few have ever been subject to serious media investigation.



But when sceptics note a temperature decline, Associated Press calls in the
statisticians:



"The Earth is still warming, not cooling as some global warming skeptics are
claiming, according to an analysis of global temperatures by independent
statistics experts. "



"The review of years of temperature data was conducted at the request of The
Associated Press. Talk of a cooling trend has been spreading on the
Internet, fueled by some news reports, a new book and temperatures that have
been cooler in a few recent years. "



"The statisticians, reviewing two sets of temperature data, found no trend
of falling temperatures over time. "



Except that, as noted, it was hotter in 1998 than it is now - despite all
the carbon.



A longer AP piece on this is here.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091026/ap_on_sc/us_sci_global_cooling



http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/

Post by Hoodwinked By Fake AGW
Really?
Looking at the period 2000 to 2011 ...
Temperature remains about 58 while CO2 rises from about 369.40 to about
391.57.
My eyeballs tell me there is NO CORRELATION FOR THIS PERIOD!
"My advice to those trying to interprete data presented graphically would
be to use what Professor Harry Roberts, University of Chicago Graduate
School of Business, has described as the world's most powerful statistical
analysis tools - your eyes."
http://www.thehouseofoojah.com/news/index.php?more=95
Mathematics and statistics are only applicable after the relationships
have been determined graphically.
If you cannot see a relationship when it is presented on a graph, you will
not succeed in describing it mathematically.
Will Alexander, UN Scientist
One of the few sceptical scientists who were not vulnerable to threats of
excommunication or dependence on
EXTRACT: The Climate Change Agenda Is Yet Another Version Of Fascism
Warmest Regards
B O N Z O
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of
scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that
is distinct from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
"A major problem has been the co-option of climate science by politics,
ambition, greed, and what seems to be a hereditary human need for a
righteous cause."
"What better cause than "saving" the planet, especially if one can get
ample, secure funding at the same time?"
William Happer, Cyrus Fogg Brackett Professor of Physics, Princeton
University.
"The claim is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8ºK in
about 150 years, which, if true, means to me that the temperature has
been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have definitely
improved in this 'warming' period,".
"If climate has not "tipped" in over 4 billion years it's not going to tip
now due to mankind. The planet has a natural thermostat"
Richard S. Lindzen, Atmospheric Physicist, Professor of Meteorology MIT,
Former IPCC Lead Author
"A core problem is that science has given way to ideology. The scientific
method has been dispensed with, or abused, to serve the myth of man-made
global warming."
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Computer models are built in an almost backwards fashion: The goal is to
show evidence of AGW, and the "scientists" go to work to produce such a
result. When even these models fail to show what advocates want, the data
and interpretations are "fudged" to bring about the desired result"
"The World Turned Upside Down", Melanie Phillips
"Ocean acidification looks suspiciously like a back-up plan by the
environmental pressure groups in case the climate fails to warm: another
try at condemning fossil fuels!"
http://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/threat-ocean-acidification-greatly-exaggerated
Before attacking hypothetical problems, let us first solve the real
problems that threaten humanity. One single water pump at an equivalent
cost of a couple of solar panels can indeed spare hundreds of Sahel women
the daily journey to the spring and spare many infections and lives.
Martin De Vlieghere, philosopher
"All it takes to find oneself called a 'denier' is to seek a sense of
proportion about environmental problems"
Mark Lynas, The God Species

[Hoodwinked By Fake AGW]

On Tue, 21 Feb 2012 10:04:15 +0000, RedAcer wrote ...

On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 10:42:45 -0800 (PST), Paul Cardinale

Speaking for myself, I became an AGW denier when I looked at the
actual data which shows that there is no significant correlation
between changes in CO2 levels and subsequent changes in global
temperature.

....

1989 352.90 57.542 1.554 0.62679
1990 354.16 57.848 1.881 0.67580
1991 355.48 57.830 2.175 0.71290
1992 356.27 57.434 2.181 0.69761
1993 356.95 57.434 2.184 0.68473
1994 358.64 57.614 2.306 0.69754
1995 360.62 57.866 2.595 0.72699
1996 362.36 57.722 2.775 0.74302
1997 363.47 57.902 3.065 0.76602
1998 366.50 58.208 3.581 0.78856
1999 368.14 57.776 3.763 0.79621
2000 369.40 57.794 3.948 0.80385
2001 371.07 58.046 4.308 0.82058
2002 373.17 58.208 4.779 0.83653
2003 375.78 58.190 5.233 0.85106
2004 377.52 58.064 5.574 0.86092
2005 379.76 58.334 6.119 0.87287
2006 381.85 58.190 6.537 0.88202
2007 383.71 58.244 6.983 0.89068
2008 385.57 57.992 7.214 0.89026
2009 387.35 58.244 7.639 0.89728
2010 389.78 58.334 8.131 0.90456
2011 391.57 58.136 8.445 0.90642
Ooops! The correlation interval observed gets stronger as every
year passes. How do you explaoin your behavior now?

You cherry-picked 7 decades of data. I looked at several millenia.

When you 'looked' at several thousand years of data did you publish
your analysis and results anywhere? Maybe you could post them here and
explain how you came to your conclusions. Do any other scientists agree
with your conclusions?

If you're interested (and I strongly suspect neither you nor the cowboy
Rice will bother to read a single word), William Briggs, Adjunct Professor
of Statistical Science at Cornell University, has written a very
informative series of articles titled:

"How to fool yourself with Statistics".

It starts with "How to Fool Yourself - And Others - With Statistics"

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=2179

I found this passage interesting: "Due to a quirk in statistical theory,
for any model and any test, statistical 'significance' is guaranteed as
long as you collect enough data. Once the sample size reaches a critical
level, small p-values practically rain from the data."

The lesson is that it takes a dull researcher not to be able to find
statistical "significance" somewhere in his data.

It gets better. I surge's you continue with:

"Example of how easy it is to mislead yourself: stepwise regression"

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=92

"The Truth of Things: When Probability & Statistics Cannot Be Used"

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=2190

and the pièce de résistance ...

"The Ease of Cheating With Statistics"

http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=2043

[kym]

On Feb 22, 10:48 am, "Hoodwinked By Fake AGW" <Hoodwinked By Fake
***@Hoodwinked By Fake AGW> wrote:
....

Post by Hoodwinked By Fake AGW
"How to fool yourself with Statistics".
It starts with "How to Fool Yourself - And Others - With Statistics"
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=2179
I found this passage interesting: "Due to a quirk in statistical theory,
for any model and any test, statistical 'significance' is guaranteed as
long as you collect enough data. Once the sample size reaches a critical
level, small p-values practically rain from the data."

...

LOL.

You mean if search through a large enough sample for a small subset
you can find any pattern?

So you (choke) *shouldn't* cherry pick? You should always use all the
data you have and maybe only
throw out just the far outliers according to your null hypothesis?

Wow.

This will come as news to kooks.

So 2-point comparisons from 130 years of data are not statistically
reliable?

--
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100

[Hoodwinked By Fake AGW]

On Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:12:25 -0600, Sam Wormley wrote ...

A Tutorial on the Basic Physics of Climate Change
See:http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/hafemeister.cfm
Conclusion: Earth is getting warmer. Basic atmospheric models
clearly
predict that additional greenhouse gasses will raise the temperature
of
Earth. To argue otherwise, one must prove a physical mechanism that
gives a reasonable alternative cause of warming. This has not been
done. Sunspot and temperature correlations do not prove causality.

Well spotted, Sam. It's hard to imagine a more unscientific statement
than
that. No wonder the article begins with the disclaimer: "The following
article has not undergone any scientific peer review ..."
--
fide, sed cui vide. (L)

Pure denial. There is *so much* peer reviewed literature that sayd
that CO2 *will* warm the earth and that it has been responsible for
the current warming.

ø That said, howcome the earth is not warming?

We have had no warming for 15 years.
Perhaps it is just the 1,600 year trend since the
last interglacial. Remember there was the
Mediaeval Warm Period followed by the Little
Ice Age followed by the Industrial Age. Now
we are 15 years into the Post Industrial Era. It
is cooling so get your winter wardrobe in top
shape.

[Surfer]

Post by Hoodwinked By Fake AGW
We have had no warming for 15 years.

You keep saying so, but the evidence is against you.

Eg.

Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets
to sea level rise
Monaghan et al.
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38, L05503
http://ess.uci.edu/researchgrp/velicogna/files/rignot_etal_grl2011.pdf

"..... we determine that ice sheet loss is accelerating by 36.3 +/- 2
Gigatonnes per year per year..."


The following graph shows that the amount of Arctic sea ice measured in
September each year has declined at an average rate of more than 12% per
decade during the last 15 years
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/N_09_plot.png



And the UK Met Office says
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/01/29/met-office-in-the-media-29-january-2012/

"....to suggest that the latest global temperatures available show no
warming in the last 15 years is entirely misleading..."
"....what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of
warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the
instrumental record going back to 1850. Depending on which temperature
records you use, 2010 was the warmest year on record for NOAA NCDC and NASA
GISS, and the second warmest on record in HadCRUT3...."

[kym]

On Feb 22, 10:48 am, "Hoodwinked By Fake AGW" <Hoodwinked By Fake

Post by Hoodwinked By Fake AGW

On Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:12:25 -0600, Sam Wormley wrote ...

A Tutorial on the Basic Physics of Climate Change
See:http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/hafemeister.cfm
Conclusion: Earth is getting warmer. Basic atmospheric models
clearly
predict that additional greenhouse gasses will raise the temperature
of
Earth. To argue otherwise, one must prove a physical mechanism that
gives a reasonable alternative cause of warming. This has not been
done. Sunspot and temperature correlations do not prove causality.

Well spotted, Sam. It's hard to imagine a more unscientific statement
than
that. No wonder the article begins with the disclaimer: "The following
article has not undergone any scientific peer review ..."
--
fide, sed cui vide. (L)

Pure denial. There is *so much* peer reviewed literature that sayd
that CO2 *will* warm the earth and that it has been responsible for
the current warming.

ø That said, howcome the earth is not warming?
  We have had no warming for 15 years.
   Perhaps it is just the 1,600 year trend since the

....


5 seconds ago you were warning about finding any pattern you want in a
large enough data set.

So if you have 16,000 years of data you are now honing down to just
some cherry-picked 15 years.
(Actually, honing down to a pair of values in the 15 years -- i.e. 2
numbers from 16,000 years of data).

It's "do as I say, not as I do" time.

--
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100

[Mr A Clarke]

What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100

Don`t worry about that, he calls everyone an idiot.

[kym]

On Feb 22, 10:48 am, "Hoodwinked By Fake AGW" <Hoodwinked By Fake

Post by Hoodwinked By Fake AGW

On Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:12:25 -0600, Sam Wormley wrote ...

A Tutorial on the Basic Physics of Climate Change
See:http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/hafemeister.cfm
Conclusion: Earth is getting warmer. Basic atmospheric models
clearly
predict that additional greenhouse gasses will raise the temperature
of
Earth. To argue otherwise, one must prove a physical mechanism that
gives a reasonable alternative cause of warming. This has not been
done. Sunspot and temperature correlations do not prove causality.

Well spotted, Sam. It's hard to imagine a more unscientific statement
than
that. No wonder the article begins with the disclaimer: "The following
article has not undergone any scientific peer review ..."
--
fide, sed cui vide. (L)

Pure denial. There is *so much* peer reviewed literature that sayd
that CO2 *will* warm the earth and that it has been responsible for
the current warming.

ø That said, howcome the earth is not warming?
  We have had no warming for 15 years.
   Perhaps it is just the 1,600 year trend since the

....


5 seconds ago you were warning about finding any pattern you want in a
large enough data set.

So if you have 16,000 years of data you are now honing down to just
some cherry-picked 15 years.
(Actually, honing down to a pair of values in the 15 years -- i.e. 2
numbers from 16,000 years of data).

It's "do as I say, not as I do" time.

--
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100

[kym]

On Feb 22, 10:48 am, "Hoodwinked By Fake AGW" <Hoodwinked By Fake

Post by Hoodwinked By Fake AGW

On Fri, 17 Feb 2012 12:12:25 -0600, Sam Wormley wrote ...

A Tutorial on the Basic Physics of Climate Change
See:http://www.aps.org/units/fps/newsletters/200807/hafemeister.cfm
Conclusion: Earth is getting warmer. Basic atmospheric models
clearly
predict that additional greenhouse gasses will raise the temperature
of
Earth. To argue otherwise, one must prove a physical mechanism that
gives a reasonable alternative cause of warming. This has not been
done. Sunspot and temperature correlations do not prove causality.

Well spotted, Sam. It's hard to imagine a more unscientific statement
than
that. No wonder the article begins with the disclaimer: "The following
article has not undergone any scientific peer review ..."
--
fide, sed cui vide. (L)

Pure denial. There is *so much* peer reviewed literature that sayd
that CO2 *will* warm the earth and that it has been responsible for
the current warming.

ø That said, howcome the earth is not warming?
  We have had no warming for 15 years.
   Perhaps it is just the 1,600 year trend since the

....


5 seconds ago you were warning about finding any pattern you want in a
large enough data set.

So if you have 16,000 years of data you are now honing down to just
some cherry-picked 15 years.
(Actually, honing down to a pair of values in the 15 years -- i.e. 2
numbers from 16,000 years of data).

It's "do as I say, not as I do" time.

--
What exactly are you trying to say, aside from calling me an idiot?
-- ***@27-32-240-172 [daily nymshifter], 11 Feb 2011 12:20 +1100

[Hoodwinked By Fake AGW]

On Sat, 18 Feb 2012 10:42:45 -0800 (PST), Paul Cardinale

Speaking for myself, I became an AGW denier when I looked at the
actual data which shows that there is no significant correlation
between changes in CO2 levels and subsequent changes in global
temperature.

Year CO2 Temp F CoVari PPMCC
1959 315.98 57.308
1960 316.91 57.182
1961 317.64 57.326
1962 318.45 57.272
1963 318.99 57.344
1964 319.62 56.822
1965 320.04 57.002
1966 321.38 57.146
1967 322.16 57.182
1968 323.04 57.128
1969 324.62 57.344
1970 325.68 57.254
1971 326.32 57.002
1972 327.45 57.200
1973 329.68 57.452
1974 330.17 57.056
1975 331.08 57.110
1976 332.05 56.912
1977 333.78 57.416
1978 335.41 57.218
1979 336.78 57.344
1980 338.68 57.542
1981 340.11 57.668
1982 341.22 57.272
1983 342.84 57.650 0.785 0.47281
1984 344.41 57.362 0.826 0.47709
1985 345.87 57.272 0.809 0.45130
1986 347.19 57.416 0.884 0.47198
1987 348.98 57.686 1.131 0.54202
1988 351.45 57.758 1.426 0.60647
1989 352.90 57.542 1.554 0.62679
1990 354.16 57.848 1.881 0.67580
1991 355.48 57.830 2.175 0.71290
1992 356.27 57.434 2.181 0.69761
1993 356.95 57.434 2.184 0.68473
1994 358.64 57.614 2.306 0.69754
1995 360.62 57.866 2.595 0.72699
1996 362.36 57.722 2.775 0.74302
1997 363.47 57.902 3.065 0.76602
1998 366.50 58.208 3.581 0.78856
1999 368.14 57.776 3.763 0.79621
2000 369.40 57.794 3.948 0.80385
2001 371.07 58.046 4.308 0.82058
2002 373.17 58.208 4.779 0.83653
2003 375.78 58.190 5.233 0.85106
2004 377.52 58.064 5.574 0.86092
2005 379.76 58.334 6.119 0.87287
2006 381.85 58.190 6.537 0.88202
2007 383.71 58.244 6.983 0.89068
2008 385.57 57.992 7.214 0.89026
2009 387.35 58.244 7.639 0.89728
2010 389.78 58.334 8.131 0.90456
2011 391.57 58.136 8.445 0.90642
Ooops! The correlation interval observed gets stronger as every
year passes. How do you explaoin your behavior now?
--
"I am not ignorant simply because I choose to believe one
theory over another." -- Madison Murphy

You cherry-picked 7 decades of data. I looked at several millenia.
Loading Image...
Loading Image...
Loading Image...
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/global-land-ocean-mntp-a...
Loading Image...
http://www.wildwildweather.com/forecastblog/wp-content/uploads/2008/0...
Loading Image...- Hide quoted
text -

- Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -

Excellent! That looks like a subset of the data I used.
Now take that data and calculate the correlation coefficient between
changes in the CO2 level and subsequent changes in the temperature,
and see if you get the same answer I got.
(Of course the idiot cultists who post under the pseudonym 'Sam
Wormley' can't actually do math, they can only post links).

Paul Cardinale